Football Manager Predicts Who Will Win World Cup 2026

World Cup 2026, which kicks off in Canada, Mexico and the United States today (11 June), will see a record 48 nations compete for the chance to be crowned World Champions. But who has the best chance of winning the World Cup, according to the world’s greatest football simulation?

With the new World Cup mode now active on Football Manager 26, we put it to the test to see how the 48 nations performed. And we ran 10 simulations to see which nations came out on top.

World Cup Simulation 1

Our first simulation threw up some very interesting results, including the first African nation to reach a World Cup Final.

The biggest surprise of the group stage was very much New Zealand beating Iran and Egrypt to qualify in 2nd place in Group G. Elsewhere, Croatia finished 3rd and went out in Group L, Senegal finished bottom of Group I, Japan exited in 4th place in Group F, and Czechia were knocked out of Group A.

In the second round, the big shocks were South Korea beating Germany 2-0 and Australia won 1-0 against Portugal. One host exited as USA lost 2-1 to Bosnia, but two kept their hopes alive as Mexico edged Switzerland 3-2 after extra time and Canada defeated Egypt 3-1. Two huge games saw Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time and Brazil beat Netherlands 2-1. Elsewhere, Türkiye hammered New Zealand 5-1, Ecuador saw off Ghana 3-1, Belgium beat Jordan 3-0, Morocco beat Sweden 2-1, France snuck past Scotland 2-1, and Ivory Coast and South Africa beat Norway and Tunisia 3-2.

Moving into the last 16, the three hosts’ hopes all ended as Canada suffered a 1-0 defeat to Australia and Mexico lost 3-1 to Brazil. There were no surprises at this stage, with the closest to a shock being Spain drawing 1-1 with Türkiye before winning on penalties. Belgium beat Bosnia 4-2, England beat Uruguay 3-1, Ecuador beat South Africa 3-0, France beat South Korea 2-0 and, in an all-African encounter, Morocco defeated Ivory Coast 3-2.

The quarter finals had an intriguing lineup, headlined by Brazil pulling off a 1-0 win over France. England beat Belgium 2-0, Morocco defeated Ecuador 2-1 and Spain edged past Australia 1-0. The in the semis, the big game saw early Foden and Stones goals down Brazil 2-1 before a shock result saw Morocco defeat Spain 2-0 through Hakimi and Saibari. Spain beat Brazil 2-1 to secure third place.

That saw Morocco go one better than 2022, becoming Africa’s first ever World Cup finalist up against England. But they weren’t to become its first World Champions, as Kane and Rogers secured a 2-0 win for England. Harry Kane was the top scorer with 8 goals, Saka was the leading assister with 9, Mbappe had the best average rating of 8.15 and Pickford kept 5 clean sheets.

World Cup Simulation 2

Our second simulation saw an odd situation as all 4 teams in Group A finished on 4 points and South Africa went out with -1 goal difference. The biggest surprises were Türkiye finishing bottom of Group D, Japan and Senegal again finishing bottom of Groups F and I, and Croatia going out of Group L.

A few second round thrillers saw France beat Scotland 6-3, Spain beat Algeria 5-3 after extra time and Morocco beat Netherlands 4-3 after extra time. Hosts Canada and USA advanced by winning 2-0 against New Zealand and 2-1 against Egypt. Brazil thrashed Sweden 4-0, Ivory Coast beat hosts Mexico 3-1, Germany beat South Korea 2-0, Switzerland and Paraguay beat Czechia and Tunisia 2-1, Argentina, Norway and Belgium edged past Uruguay, Ecuador and Austria 1-0 and Colombia beat Ghana 1-0 after extra time.

Morocco got cut short a lot quicker, losing 1-0 to Switzerland in the last 16, and the hosts were knocked out as Portugal thrashed Canada 4-0 and Argentina beat USA 3-1. But the big game was France defeating Germany 2-1. Elsewhere, England dominated Ivory Coast 3-0, Brazil and Spain beat Norway and Colombia 2-0 and Belgium beat Paraguay 2-1.

In the quarters, Brazil trounced England 4-1, France beat Switzerland 2-0 and Argentina beat Portugal 2-1. While a close game saw Spain prevail on penalties after drawing 0-0 with Belgium. Two tasty semis saw Argentina defeat their continental rivals Brazil 4-2 after extra time through Lo Celso, Otamendi, Paz and Lautaro, after France dominated Spain 3-1 with goals by Kone, Dembélé and Ekitiké. Spain again secured 3rd place, defeating Brazil 3-2.

Remarkably, there was a repeat of the 2022 Final as France took on Argentina, and there was nearly as much drama. France raced into a 2-0 lead through Olise and Dembélé but a 7-minute Lautaro brace got Argentina level before half time. But a Cherki double saw France get revenge and become World Champions. Lautaro was top scorer with 12 goals, Brahim Díaz, Rafinha, Mbappé and Dembélé led the assists with 5, Mbappe was the best player with an 8.50 rating and Courtois topped the clean sheets with 5.

World Cup Simulation 3

The 3rd simulation certainly threw up some unexpected results. That began with Morocco being dumped out of Group C with 3 losses, including a shock 2-0 defeat to Haiti. Türkiye also exited Group D, New Zealand again progressed courtesy of beating Egypt 1-0, Colombia were knocked out of Group K by DR Congo and Croatia again failed to get out of the group.

There were mixed fortunes for the hosts in the second round as Canada beat South Africa 2-0, but USA went out to Netherlands on penalties and Mexico lost 3-1 to Germany. A few big shocks saw Australia defeat Portugal 2-1, Uruguay beat holders Argentina 3-2, New Zealand beat Paraguay 2-1, and Japan overcome Brazil on penalties, while Czechia and Norway needed penalties to see off Ivory Coast and Ecuador. England beat Saudi Arabia 3-0, France and Spain beat Haiti and Austria 3-1, Belgium and DR Congo defeated Senegal and Ghana 3-2, Algeria beat Switzerland 2-0

Canada’s dream run continued by hammering Japan 5-0 in the last 16, as did Australia’s as they beat Algeria on penalties. A few huge rival clashes saw Wirtz and Havertz goals lead Germany to a 2-1 win over England, Belgium win on penalties after drawing 3-3 with Netherlands, and Norway beat Sweden 3-1. France beat Czechia 3-0, Spain beat DR Congo 2-0 and Uruguay ended New Zealand’s run with a 3-2 victory.

Remarkably, Canada’s run continued as they shocked France 1-0 in the quarter finals. Belgium beat Spain 3-0, Norway defeated Germany 3-2 and Uruguay hammered Australia 5-1. An unusual looking semi final lineup saw the end of the road for plucky Canada, who lost 2-1 to Belgium, and Uruguay beat Norway 2-0 to reach their first final since 1950. But Canada weren’t done there as they beat Norway on penalties after drawing 2-2 to finish 3rd!

An unexpected final saw Belgium become World Champions in style, hammering Uruguay 5-1 with goals by De Bruyne, Lukaku, De Ketelaere, Onana and Bakayoko. Canada’s Jonathan David was top scorer with 10 goals, Yamal led the assists with 6, Mbappé was again the best player with an 8.30 rating and Canada’s St Clair led the clean sheets race with 4.

World Cup Simulation 4

The 4th simulation saw a first team reach a second Final, but much fewer shocks than the previous simulation. Mexico surprisingly exited at the group stage, while Canada and USA both topped their groups. And Croatia and Qatar qualified for the first time.

The biggest surprise of the second round was Croatia thrashing Portugal 4-1, while Scotland beat South Africa 3-2, Spain just about beat Austria 3-2 after extra time and Canada hammered Japan 4-0. Elsewhere, Netherlands defeated Morocco 4-1 after extra time, France and Colombia beat Australia and Ghana 3-1, Brazil and Argentina beat Sweden and Uruguay 3-2, England, Germany, Switzerland and Belgium beat Ecuador, Czechia, USA and Türkiye 2-1, and Norway beat Ivory Coast 1-0. While an all-African tie saw Egypt defeat Algeria on penalties after drawing 1-1.

A titanic clash in the last 16 saw France hammer Germany 4-0, while England also beat rivals Scotland 4-0. Argentina beat Belgium 2-0, Brazil beat Norway 2-1, and Colombia, Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland all won 1-0 against Canada, South Korea, Croatia and Egypt.

Two big shocks followed in the quarters as Colombia beat holders Argentina 1-0 and Netherlands beat France 2-1. England beat Brazil 2-1 and Spain just about saw off Switzerland 3-2 after extra time. In the semis, Netherlands thrashed Spain 4-1 led by a Simons hat trick and England defeated Colombia 2-0 through Anderson and Palmer. Colombia finished 3rd by beating Spain 2-1 after extra time.

England lifted the World Cup for the second simulation, beating Netherlands 2-0 with goals by Saka and Palmer. Kane was again the top scorer with 9 goals and Salah led the assists with 6 and had the best rating of 8.32, while Pickford topped the clean sheets with 6.

World Cup Simulation 5

The halfway mark of our simulations saw another repeat winner. Hosts Mexico went out in the groups, as did Morocco, Paraguay, Japan and New Zealand, but Uzbekistan qualified for the first time, courtesy of beating DR Congo 2-1 and drawing 1-1 with Colombia.

The two remaining hosts were gone in the second round, as Canada lost 3-2 after extra time to Czechia and USA lost 2-1 to Tunisia. The biggest shock of the round was holders Argentina losing 1-0 to Uruguay, while the thriller of the round was Ivory Coast beating South Africa 4-3. France hammered Ecuador 5-0, Belgium beat Cape Verde 4-0, England, Spain and Croatia thrashed Uzbekistan, Austria and DR Congo 3-0, Norway and Egypt beat Türkiye and Austria 3-1, Netherlands and Germany beat Scotland and South Korea 2-1, and Senegal and Sweden beat Switzerland and Brazil on penalties.

Another big shock followed in the last 16 as Egypt beat Spain 1-0. England beat Germany 4-2, France dominated Sweden 3-0, Portugal beat Senegal 2-0 and Norway beat Ivory Coast 3-1 after extra time. Belgium, Czechia and Uruguay all advanced with 1-0 wins over Tunisia, Netherlands and Croatia.

One massive quarter final clash saw France advance by beating England 3-1. Portugal ended Egypt’s run with a 2-0 win, Belgium beat Uruguay 2-1 after extra time and Norway defeated Czechia on penalties. In the semis, France saw off Portugal 3-1 led by a Dembélé brace and Belgium snuck past Norway on penalties. Portugal came 3rd with a 2-1 win over Norway.

Two local rivals went head to head in the Final, and Belgium played out a draw after Lukaku’s early strike was cancelled out by Mbappé. But Lukaku and de Cuyper missed their penalties for France to win another World Cup. Haaland was the top scorer with 10 goals and was the best player with an 8.17 rating, Frimpong led the assists with 5 and Maignan led several keepers with 4 clean sheets.

World Cup Simulation 6

Our sixth simulation saw one team become the favourite to win the entire simulation. The biggest surprise of the group stage was New Zealand winning Group G after holding Belgium to a 11. While Mexico came bottom of Group A, as did Japan in Group F and Senegal in Group I.

The second round saw the two remaining hosts go head-to-head and serve up a cracker as USA beat Canada 5-3 after extra time. Two big clashes saw Spain beat Argentina on penalties after drawing 0-0 and Brazil beat Netherlands 3-1, and a couple of thrillers were played out as Uruguay saw off Austria 4-3 and Ivory Coast beat South Africa 3-2. New Zealand progressed by beating Iraq 1-0 and Norway and Croatia beat Ecuador and Colombia by the same scoreline. England thrashed DR Congo 6-0, Portugal and France beat Algeria and Türkiye 4-1, Morocco beat Sweden 3-0, Germany saw off Czechia 2-1, and Belgium and Egypt needed penalties to beat Australia and Bosnia.

A big surprise in the last 16 saw Egypt defeat Portugal 1-0, while USA ended New Zealand’s run with a 3-1 victory. Morocco thrashed South Korea 5-1, Uruguay beat Croatia 2-0, Brazil defeated Norway 201, and England, France and Spain all progressed 1-0 against Germany, Ivory Coast and Belgium.

A blockbuster quarter final saw England progress against Brazil on penalties after drawing 2-2. Spain beat Egypt 2-0, Uruguay beat USA 2-1 and France beat Morocco 1-0. In the semis, France hammered Uruguay 4-1 before Spain thrashed England 3-0. England secured 3rd place with a 2-1 win over Uruguay.

The final wasn’t much of a thriller, but Mbappé’s goal was cancelled out by Olmo. It went to penalties and Spain missed twice through Morata and Zubimendi, so France won their 3rd World Cup out of 6 simulations. Kane was the top scorer with 7 goals, Uruguay’s Rodrigo Zalazar topped the assists with 6, Saka was the best player with a 8.10 rating and Unai Simón led the way with 6 clean sheets – and the only goal Spain conceded was in the final!

World Cup Simulation 7

Our 7th simulation saw a new name etched onto the famous World Cup trophy as two nations that have never won the World Cup played out the Final. The biggest surprise of the group stage was Türkiye finishing bottom of Group D, while New Zealand missed out on qualification this time around.

A big surprise followed in the second round as Scotland beat France 4-3 after extra time thanks to an Oli McBurnie winner. While the big game of the round saw Spain win a 3-2 thriller against Argentina. Canada hammered Algeria 4-1 and Mexico snuck through 1-0 against Ivory Coast, but USA went out 1-0 after extra time against Japan. Sweden and Czechia knocked out Brazil and Ecuador 2-1, Germany, Portugal and England beat Norway, Ghana and Saudi Arabia 2-0, Senegal and Belgium beat Egypt and Australia 2-1, and Switzerland and Uruguay beat South Africa and Austria 1-0.

Croatia claimed a scalp in the last 16, knocking out Spain 3-2. Germany also beat Sweden 3-2, Portugal knocked out Canada 3-1, Belgium beat Uruguay 2-0 and Mexico beat Scotland on penalties after drawing 2-2. England and Netherlands both progressed with 1-0 wins over Czechia and Switzerland.

A big quarter final clash saw Germany defeat England on penalties after drawing 2-2. Netherlands knocked out hosts Mexico 3-1, Croatia advanced 2-1 against Japan and Portugal defeated Belgium 2-1 on extra time. A more heavyweight semi lineup saw Netherlands defeat Croatia 2-1 through Depay and a late Simons winner before Portugal beat Germany 2-1 with late goals by Pote and Trincao. Germany secured 3rd place on penalties after drawing 2-2 with Croatia.

That saw two first-time finalists as Netherlands took on Portugal. Frimpong scored early on before Depay struck 2 minutes either side of halftime. Conceicao got a consolation but a 3-1 win saw Netherlands win the World Cup. Okafor was a surprise top scorer with 6 goals, Reijnders led the assists with 5, Sorloth was the best player with a 7.80 rating and Kobel was one of several keepers with just 3 clean sheets.

World Cup Simulation 8

Our 8th simulation was decided by the biggest winning margin in World Cup history. The groups didn’t throw up any shocks, with the biggest surprise being Austria beating Argentina 3-1 to top Group J.

The second round threw up some big shocks as hosts Canada defeated Germany 2-0 and USA knocked Belgium out 1-0, while England lost 1-0 to Ivory Coast. Mexico lost 2-1 to Egypt, Argentina and Spain met again, with the holders winning 2-1 this time, while Brazil beat Netherlands in a 4-3 thriller. France and Croatia thrashed Australia and Colombia 4-0, Uruguay beat Austria 4-2, Portugal beat Panama 3-1 and Sweden beat Morocco 3-2. Switzerland beat New Zealand 2-0 and Norway and South Africa beat Ecuador and Bosnia 1-0.

More surprises in the last 16 saw Switzerland beat Portugal 1-0 and Croatia won a 4-3 thriller against holders Argentina. Hosts USA advanced with a 3-2 win over Uruguay but Canada went out 3-0 to France. Brazil beat Norway 2-0, Japan beat Egypt 3-1, Sweden beat South Africa 2-1 and Ivory Coast beat Switzerland 1-0.

Japan continued their good run in the quarters by beating Croatia on penalties after drawing 1-1. Switzerland hammered USA 5-2, France thumped Sweden 4-0 and Brazil beat Ivory Coast 3-0. France booked another final appearance by beating Japan 3-0 led by an Olise brace, and they would take on Switzerland, who surprised Brazil 1-0 with a goal by Manzambi. Brazil secured 3rd place by beating Japan 3-0.

The final was an absolute walkover as France destroyed Switzerland 6-0 with Mbappé and Dembélé braces and goals by Olise and Cherki. Mbappé was the top scorer with 8 goals and the best player with an 8.15 rating, Vini Jr led the assists with 6 and Alisson topped the clean sheets with 6.

World Cup Simulation 9

The penultimate simulation saw a different winner and two new finalists for this test run. The group stage offered up no major shocks, but Ghana managed to top their group by drawing with Croatia and England and Norway were knocked out by Senegal.

A massive shock was served up in the second round as Uzbekistan beat England 1-0, while Scotland defeated Netherlands on penalties after drawing 2-2. Czechia beat Canada 2-1 and Mexico exited 2-0 to Morocco, but USA beat Ivory Coast 1-0. Argentina again beat Spain 2-1, Germany thrashed Senegal 5-1, Uruguay and Egypt beat Austria and Cape Verde 4-1 and Brazil and France beat Japan and Australia 3-1. Colombia beat Panama 2-0, Türkiye edged out Belgium 3-2, Switzerland knocked out Algeria 2-1 and Bosnia beat Ecuador 1-0.

Bosnia pulled off a huge shock in the last 16, beating France on penalties after drawing 2-2. USA thrashed Egypt 4-1, Colombia beat Switzerland 3-1, Argentina nicked through 2-1 against Türkiye and Brazil, Czechia and Portugal all won 1-0 against Germany, Scotland and Morocco.

USA made their second World Cup semi by beating Uruguay 2-0. Argentina also beat Colombia 2-0, Czechia beat Bosnia 2-1 and Portugal nicked a 1-0 against Brazil. In the semis, Argentina defeated Portugal 2-1 through Lautaro and an own goal and Schick’s strike was enough for Czechia to defeat hosts USA. Portugal came 3rd by beating USA 2-0.

Argentina had a shot at winning consecutive World Cups against Czechia. They led through Fernández and Schick quickly equalised, but an injury time Nico Paz goal won it for Argentina. Schick was the top scorer with 7 goals, Raphinha led the assists with 7, Vini Jr was the best player with a 8.06 rating and Colombia’s Kevin Mier kept the most clean sheets with 4.

World Cup Simulation 10

Our final simulation of World Cup 2026 was decided by arguably one of the all-time great finals. In the group stage, hosts Mexico exited with 3 defeats, while Canada won their group and USA came 2nd in theirs. Türkiye exited Group D and Germany were very lucky not to join them, somehow qualifying with 3 points and 0 goal difference. While Uzbekistan qualified with a historic 3-1 win over DR Congo.

The thriller of the second round was between Canada and Argentina, who played out a 3-3 before the holders won on penalties. The hosts’ time at the tournament ended early as USA also lost 2-1 to Egypt. A big shock saw Austria defeat Spain 3-2, England thrashed Uzbekistan 4-0, Colombia hammered Paraguay 4-1, Brazil beat Sweden 3-2, Germany defeated Czechia 3-1 and Australia and France beat Japan and Scotland 2-0. Portugal and Algeria saw off Ghana and Uruguay 2-1 and Ivory Coast, Switzerland, Ecuador and Belgium all won 1-0 against South Korea, South Africa, Senegal and Norway, and Netherlands defeated Morocco on penalties after drawing 1-1.

A surprise result in the last 16 saw Colombia thrash holders Argentina 4-0. Brazil also beat Ecuador 4-0, England thrashed Germany 3-0 and Portugal beat Austria by the same scoreline. France scraped through 3-2 against Ivory Coast, Netherlands beat Switzerland 2-1, Belgium beat Australia 2-0 and Egypt won 3-2 against Algeria in an all-African tie.

In the quarters, France won an absolute epic 5-4 after extra time against Netherlands. Portugal dominated Belgium 4-1, England won another thriller 4-2 against Brazil and Egypt reached the semis by beating Colombia 2-1. France went goal crazy again in the semis, thumping Portugal 6-2 led by an Mbappé hat trick before England dominated Egypt 4-1 with Kane and Palmer braces. Portugal came 3rd, beating Egypt 2-1.

Cole Palmer was the top scorer with 10 goals (ironic), Saka led the assists with 7, Ivory Coast’s Yahia Fofana led the clean sheets with 4 and Jonathan David was the best player with an 8.57 rating.

Likely World Cup Winners Assessed

Based on these 10 simulations, Football Manager believes France is the nation most likely to win World Cup 2026. France won 5 of these 10 simulations, along with 2 successes for England and 1 each for Argentina, Belgium, England, Netherlands. While surprise finalists included Czechia, Morocco, Switzerland and Uruguay, and one of the favourties Spain only reached one final.

But will any of that ring true when World Cup 2026 kicks off today? And who do you think is going to win the World Cup? Let us know by leaving a comment!