Having created save files with all the real-life squads for the European Championships, which kick off in Germany next Sunday, I thought we’d use FM24 to see who the game thinks will win the tournament. I simulated the tournament five times to see who came out on top.
You can play EURO 2024 with the real-life squads and groups using the save game files we created in our previous article here.
EURO 2024 Simulation 1
The big shock of the group stage was an exit for Netherlands, who finished 3rd to France and Austria, while Scotland qualified in 3rd ahead of Hungary. In the second round, Scotland caused a huge shock as they beat holders Italy 2-0 and Switzerland beat Spain on penalties. England, Portugal and Germany beat Turkey, Serbia and Denmark 1-0, France beat Czechia 3-2 after extra time and Austria defeated Ukraine 3-1.
In the quarter finals, a Harry Kane brace led England’s 4-0 thumping of Switzerland, Portugal edged past Austria on penalties after a 1-1 draw and France and Germany beat Belgium and Scotland 1-0. Into the semis, Portugal dominated fake Germany 3-1 with Ronaldo’s second half brace and France beat England 3-2 in extra time with Thuram’s 104th-minute winner. Danilo scored 15 minutes into the Final, Mbappé missed a penalty and Portugal beat France 1-0 despite Jota’s red card. Kane was the top scorer with 5 followed by Dovbyk, De Bruyne and Mbappé with 4.
EURO 2024 Simulation 2
Netherlands were again the shock exit in our 2nd simulation. Scotland finished 2nd in Group A, Spain only just qualified in 3rd, and Serbia somehow qualified with 2 points. In the second round, Belgium defeated Spain on penalties and Czechia shocked England on penalties after a 2-2 draw, with Kane and Mainoo missing the spot kicks. France and Ukraine beat Turkey and Austria 3-1, Germany beat Slovenia 2-1 after extra time, Portugal beat Serbia 2-1 and Croatia and Italy beat Scotland and Slovakia 1-0.
Czechia’s good run continued as they beat Croatia 2-1 in the quarter finals. Portugal beat Ukraine 3-2 through Bernardo Silva’s late winner and Italy and France beat Germany and Belgium 1-0. In the semis, Ronaldo’s injury time equaliser forced extra time but Italy beat Portugal on penalties and France thrashed Czechia 5-2 led by two assists apiece for Camavinga and Griezmann. An Italy v France final was more entertaining than expected but finished 1-1 as Retegui’s late goal cancelled out Dembélé’s opener. It went to penalties and Tchouameni and Koundé misses were cancelled out by Retegui and Gatti before Calafiori missed the vital kick for France to win 7-6. The Golden Boot was shared by four players as Schick, Ronaldo, Retegui and Mbappé all scored 4.
EURO 2024 Simulation 3
The Netherlands managed to qualify this time, finishing 2nd to France with 5 points. Georgia were the surprise qualifiers, knocking out Turkey. In the second round, Slovakia caused a huge shock by beating Spain 2-1, Ukraine beat the Netherlands 1-0 and Croatia beat Belgium 3-1. Italy beat Switzerland 2-0, Germany beat Slovenia 3-2 after extra time, Portugal and England beat Hungary and Georgia 3-1 and France beat Czechia 3-2 after Mbappé scored twice in the first 3 minutes.
Slovakia’s run continued as they beat Germany 2-1, Portugal thrashed Ukraine 5-2, France defeated Croatia 3-1 and a replay of the 2022 Final saw Italy beat England 3-1. In the semis, Portugal hammered Slovakia 4-0 and Mateo Retegui’s 88th-minute penalty nicked a 1-0 win over France. 39-year-old Ronaldo was the Final hero as his goal sealed a 2-0 Portugal win over Italy. Jota was the top scorer with 7 goals followed by Kane with 5.
EURO 2024 Simulation 4
A massive shock in stimulation 4 saw Spain finish bottom of Group B, but the Netherlands managed to qualify. They then made it through the second round for the first time with a 3-1 win over Ukraine, while two big games saw France beat Portugal 3-1 and Italy defeat Germany 2-1. Belgium beat Scotland 2-1 after extra time, Switzerland beat Denmark 2-1 and Croatia and Turkey beat Romania and Slovenia 1-0.
Kane, Shaw and Bowen goals helped England beat Germany 3-0 in the quarter finals. Switzerland beat Croatia 1-0, France nicked a 2-1 win over Belgium in extra time and Netherlands continued with a 2-1 win over Turkey. In the semis, England overcame France 2-0 with Kane and Bowen scoring again and Netherlands beat Switzerland 1-0. A cagey final saw Kane’s goal cancelled out by Weghorst to send England into a penalty shootout for a second successive final. This time it went better for England as they scored all five penalties and Brobbey missed one for Netherlands. Ronaldo was the top scorer with 5 followed by Bellingham and Kane with 4.
EURO 2024 Simulation 5
The 5th simulation saw the least group stage surprises, but Poland made it yet another 4th place finish in Group D. The lack of shocks continued as France edged past Czechia 3-2 in extra time in the second round and Spain beat Scotland 1-0. Germany, Switzerland and Netherlands all won 3-0 against Serbia, Croatia and Romania, Portugal beat Italy 2-1 and England beat Slovakia 2-0.
The quarter finals saw three games won 3-2 in extra time as Portugal beat Netherlands, England beat Switzerland with Kane’s 116th-minute winner and France knocked out Belgium. Spain beat Germany 2-0 in the other game. The semi finals were a tale of penalty shootouts as Portugal beat Spain after a 2-2 draw and England edged past France after a 0-0. In the final, Portugal dominated England only for Bowen’s 25th-minute goal to decide it. The Golden Boot was shared by Depay, Ronaldo and Kane who all scored 4 goals.
So there we have it, Portugal and England are the most likely winners of EURO 2024, with 2 victories apiece in these 5 simulations.
Football Manager Addict 
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